BJP concentrated its efforts on attracting non-Jat and OBC voters, which appears to have labored successfully. The occasion gained extra traction than the Congress amongst Brahmins, Punjabi Khatris, Yadavs and non-Jat Dalits, which helped safe the occasion’s third consecutive victory in Haryana.
The survey reveals that the Congress managed to rally a good portion of Jatav voters amongst Dalits, a bunch carefully related to senior Congress chief Kumari Selja. Moreover, it secured assist from Muslims and Sikhs, who make up about 7 and 4 p.c of the overall citizens, respectively.
The BJP’s Punjabi and Ahir candidates had the perfect strike charges. Amongst Punjabis, the Congress had fielded eight candidates and gained three seats, whereas the BJP scored 9 wins with 11 tickets.
Within the Ahir group, the Congress had fielded six candidates, however all of them misplaced. The BJP’s seven Ahir candidates gained six seats.
Based on the CSDS-Lokniti survey, 68 p.c of Yadavs voted for BJP, in comparison with 25 p.c for Congress, which resulted within the latter’s dismal efficiency within the Ahirwal belt. Punjabi Khatris —the group former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar belongs to— largely voted for the BJP. The survey reveals that 68 p.c of voters within the group picked BJP, whereas 18 p.c supported the Congress.
From the announcement of candidates to the election marketing campaign, the Congress primarily targeted on the 22-25 p.c Jat and 20-22 p.c Scheduled Caste voters. In distinction, the BJP, in keeping with its non-Jat technique, targeted on the 30-32 p.c OBCs, 9-10 p.c Punjabis and 8-9 p.c Brahmins.
A key spotlight is that the BJP gained 4 out of six seats in Sonipat district, which is a part of Haryana’s Deswali belt, thought of a stronghold of former chief minister and Congress chief Bhupinder Singh Hooda. BJP bagged the Kharkhoda and Gohana seats right here for the primary time, which it hadn’t gained even throughout the Modi wave in 2014 and 2019. The occasion additionally gained the Rai and Sonipat seats.
BJP’s insurgent candidate Devendra Kadian gained the Ganaur seat, whereas Congress managed to win only one seat right here.
Additionally Learn: Behind Congress’s shock defeat in Haryana, rebels, Independents & INDIA bloc allies
‘Different teams alienated by the Congress’s Jat-centric technique’
In 11 meeting seats the place Congress had fielded Jat candidates, BJP countered with candidates from different communities. The latter gave tickets to Brahmin candidates in 4 constituencies, Vaishya candidates in two, and one every to the Bishnoi, Bairagi, Gujjar, Saini and Sikh candidates. Of those, BJP gained eight.
The Congress’s Jat candidates managed to win solely three seats. BJP’s non-Jat technique labored nicely in Jat-majority constituencies, like Uchana, Gohana and Palwal.
With respect to different events, each Indian Nationwide Lok Dal (INLD) MLAs are from the Jat group. Of the three Independents this time, two belong to the Jat group, too.
Each the BJP and the Congress had fielded 21 OBC candidates every. Of the 17 OBC MLAs who’ve been elected, 14 are from BJP and three from the Congress. Within the Rania seat, the place each events had fielded OBC candidates, the INLD’s Arjun Chautala—a Jat—gained.
Based on Kushal Pal, a political science professor and principal of Indira Gandhi Authorities School in Kurukshetra’s Ladwa, the Congress inadvertently did what the BJP had finished in 2014 and 2019—polarisation of votes alongside caste strains between Jats and non-Jats—and this offered the BJP a well-prepared pitch to bat on.
“The Congress marketing campaign was so Jat-centred that a number of candidates overtly addressed Hooda as the long run CM of Haryana. Congress MP Jai Parkash had mentioned on stage a number of instances that Hooda would return as CM. The media did the remaining by explaining how 72 of the 90 seats have been given to Hooda’s individuals,” Pal advised ThePrint.
Moreover, the problems raised by senior Dalit Congress chief Kumari Selja about how Hooda loyalist Jassi Petwar was given a ticket in Narnaund—ignoring her affiliate Dr Ajay Chaudhary—in addition to a casteist comment allegedly made in opposition to her by a celebration employee, have been left unaddressed by the occasion’s prime management within the state. “Selja didn’t marketing campaign for a fortnight until Rahul Gandhi himself intervened and requested her to attend his rally. When Rahul tried to make Selja and Hooda shake palms, the 2 leaders have been hardly in a position to betray the discomfort on their faces,” mentioned Pal.
He added, “This gave the BJP the ammunition to make use of in opposition to the Congress, which it used to the hilt by highlighting incidents in Mirchpur and Gohana throughout the Hooda regime, the place Dalits have been focused by the dominant Jat group.”
Pal listed a number of strikes that made the Congress’s marketing campaign seem Jat-centric: the grand reception accorded to Vinesh Phogat by Congress employees led by MP Deepender Hooda whereas the BJP saved its distance; visuals of Rahul Gandhi holding palms with Bajrang Punia and Phogat; Phogat getting the ticket from Julana; and having Punia marketing campaign for Congress candidates.
Even Rahul Gandhi’s go to to the Karnal residence of Amit Mann, who had been injured in a truck accident within the US, which was meant as a noble gesture, additionally led to the marketing campaign being seen as Jat-centric.
“When an individual, chief, or political occasion begins to indicate extreme inclination and proclivity in direction of a group thought of dominant in society, the opposite backward and uncared for sections don’t simply distance themselves from that individual, chief or occasion, but additionally quietly unite in opposition to them,” Pal mentioned.
“It is a widespread phenomenon, and the outcomes of the Haryana elections mirror this to some extent. Earlier than the elections, Congress had begun exhibiting a transparent inclination in direction of the Jat group, which made the OBC, Brahmin, Punjabi, Vaishya, and to some extent, SC communities, really feel alienated.”
He mentioned that the Congress’s politics instilled a way of insecurity amongst these teams. The BJP’s suppose tank sensed this and frequently raised the problem of Selja being disrespected and uncared for. Because of this, a big portion of those communities, besides the Jats, put aside their resentment and aligned with the BJP.
Congress candidate and former MLA Shamsher Singh Gogi, who misplaced from the Assandh seat in Karnal, additionally cited this cause for the occasion’s defeat.
Congress strategists, particularly the Hooda camp, couldn’t give you an answer to the Selja concern with a purpose to cease the injury. “To some extent, their overconfidence was additionally accountable. Now, the outcomes are evident,” Gogi remarked.
Based on Pal, even statements by Congress leaders, like Neeraj Sharma (Faridabad), Kuldeep Sharma (Ganaur) and Gogi (Assandh), labored in opposition to the occasion because the BJP was in a position to examine the recruitments beneath its rule with out “kharchi and parchi” to the erstwhile Hooda-led authorities’s jobs, allegedly given away on suggestions and bribes.
Ashutosh Kumar, a political science professor from Panjab College, Chandigarh, mentioned that the Hooda regime from 2005 to 2014 was carefully related to the Jat group, and within the run-up to the election, nearly each candidate from the Hooda camp was projecting him as the long run chief minister.
“This may occasionally have gone in opposition to the Congress via the consolidation of non-Jat votes for the BJP. Nonetheless, this should be verified from some genuine election knowledge,” he added.
Kumar mentioned that you will need to keep in mind that in any election, the BJP begins with a bonus, given its human and materials assets and the recognition of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“To say that the BJP’s victory is astonishing can be incorrect, however profitable an election after being in energy for 10 years is one thing outstanding,” Kumar mentioned.
(Edited by Mannat Chugh)
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